Today THE outcome of the crisis in Egypt can be disastrous or instructive. US President Obama faces tough choices with this country reeling in unrest that could deteriorate into anarchy as antipathy between the demonstrators and pro-Mubarak supporters intensifies. As the situation worsens the US options narrow.In Egypt and elsewhere, the immediate causes for this popular outburst are rooted in a longstanding desire for a responsive and inclusive system of governance. Civil society advocates in Egypt have realised that economic growth and political reform marching in tandem will enable durable democracy building that goes beyond mere elections and ephemeral constitutions. The caveat is -- economic growth must evolve to economic development to be fully appreciated by all communities throughout the country.In contrast, high unemployment, corruption, and authoritarian rule are conditions courting disaster, especially since tension between Muslims and Christians persists as well as the divide between secular and sectarian elements. For example, civil society proponents could be pitted against sectarian impulses (Muslim Brotherhood). The possibility of internecine conflict is real and could rend Egypt's social fabric. This situation is contagious and is likely to spread even beyond Tunisia, Yemen, Jordan, and that region.
For example, China is a glaring example of economic growth marching out of step with political reform, and militarisation without respect for human rights. Perhaps President Obama and Secretary Clinton separately conveyed privately our concern for these matters to President Hu Jintao during his recent visit to Washington.However, popular aspirations are not assuaged by presumed private conversations between senior officials and leaders with their counterparts. The absence of clear public statements on human rights by our leaders inevitably leads to a scintilla of doubt which can grow rapidly.
In the case of Egypt, that country has been heralded for its admirable and unique history, and as a beacon of moderation in a troubled region is appreciated for its tutelary role in the region. But the tumultuous popular outpouring of dissatisfaction is specifically directed against the embattled president Mubarak and his cronies.Clearly, the populace is disenchanted by the regime's disregard for its general welfare and denial of a voice in the conduct of affairs that impact their daily lives. To his credit, President Obama in his carefully calibrated speech expressed concern over Mubarak's methods of squelching dissent and urged reform NOW.
The day of reckoning has arrived. And this momentum calling for Mubarak's resignation is unstoppable in spite of his most recent tactics of fomenting division between his supporters and the civil society activists.In the final analysis, a large portion of the Egyptian public consider Mubarak's latest manoeuvre despicable. It's clear the time has passed for tinkering, and a Cabinet reshuffle is perceived as a last-ditch attempt by the old guard now holding on to the fraying reins of powerThe credibility of US and its allies is now under intense international scrutiny and their intentions in the region may become suspect. Cautionary rhetoric may be temporarily reassuring but in the short run it will not suffice. President Obama and his vaunted foreign policy and national security advisers will have to help him blend "the merits of thinking long term with the merits of helping people have better lives", a recent phrase expressed reportedly by the president's chief election strategist David Axelrod in reference to President Obama's impending domestic campaign for a second term.
An instructive and credible course of action is the US role in the 1985 People Power Revolution in The Philippines against Ferdinand and Imelda Marcos and their cronies who showed disdain for the majority of voters who supported Corazon Aquino at the polls.The appeal of the late Cardinal Jaime Sin for peaceful protest and the adroit US action in that crisis helped avert an impending carnage, even though an American president had earlier characterised Ferdinand Marcos as a true "democrat". The US with its two largest overseas bases in The Philippines and Soviet mischief in the region required creative diplomacy and targeted action.In the case of Egypt, the US has appreciated Cairo's constructive role in the Israel-Palestine imbroglio consonant with US and allies vested interests in a durable negotiated settlement with peace and security ensured. In his speech President Obama acknowledged Mubarak's role, while recognising demonstrators' rights to exercise free speech, a fundamental tenet of democracy. The backdrop, is however, US dependence on Middle East petroleum in the absence of fully tapped alternative domestic energy sources.In this era of sophisticated technology and evaporating secret discussions (WikiLeaks), transparency has become the order of the day. This reality requires responsible leaders to be more forthright in their pronouncements and live by them. And this applies to President Obama who stressed transparency and human rights in his campaign for president.More than ever, the times now call for US candour and responsiveness while recognising the merits of negotiation and quiet diplomacy as necessary in this situation.
This outpouring of rejection for Mubarak is a clarion call for autocrats to change their style of governance and reform their calcified political apparatus.At the same time, US leadership is being tested acutely in this situation, and the world is watching. In spite of the dilemma, I hope President Obama emerges as a defender of the human spirit. In embracing US commitment to freedom of expression, he displays pragmatism and respectfully conveys the urgency of change in Egypt and elsewhere.
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